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Volume 10, Number 11—November 2004

Research

Evaluating Human Papillomavirus Vaccination Programs

Al V. Taira*, Christopher P. Neukermans†, and Gillian D. Sanders†‡Comments to Author 
Author affiliations: *Stanford School of Medicine, Stanford, California, USA; †Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA; ‡Duke University, Durham, North Carolina, USA

Main Article

Table 1

Input variablesa,b

Age category (y) New sex partners/y (%)
(12–14)
Mixing between age categories (%)
(12–14)c
Initial HPV prevalence (%) (15–18)d
Duration HPV shedding (%)
(19–21)e
Female
Male
Female
Male
HPV 16
HPV 18
0 1 2–4 5+ 0 1 2–4 5+ < = > < = > Female Male Female Male Stop shedding Completely regress
<18 64 30 5 1 57 30 11 1 64 36 90 10 2.6 3.5 0.9 1.2 55 49
18–20 55 26 15 4 50 25 19 6 1 61 38 18 72 11 4.3 5.0 1.8 2.1 55 49
21–23 55 26 15 4 50 25 19 6 3 59 38 32 58 10 4.6 5.0 2.2 2.3 55 49
24–26 76 19 4 1 66 21 12 2 11 51 38 34 56 10 3.0 3.4 1.5 1.7 37 33
27–29 83 12 4 1 71 15 12 2 11 51 38 34 56 10 1.7 2.7 0.8 1.4 37 33
30–34 89 7 4 1 76 10 12 2 10 49 41 38 49 13 1.0 2.1 0.5 1.1 37 7
35–39 90 6 3 0 81 9 9 1 13 50 37 36 49 15 0.7 1.5 0.4 0.8 37 7
40–44 90 6 3 0 81 9 9 1 15 48 37 39 47 15 0.5 1.1 0.3 0.6 37 7
>45 94 5 1 0 90 6 3 0 15 85 39 62 0.4 0.7 0.2 0.4 37 7

aHPV, human papillomavirus.
bMixing between sexual activity categories was assumed to be assortive (22). Relative preference for within-group mixing was estimated by [% of potential partners in group X] / [(% of potential partners in group X) + α(1 – % of potential partners in group X)], where α (the assortment variable) ranged from 0.4 for relatively assortive mixing (base-case value) to –0.4 for relatively disassortive mixing.
cFor each age group, percentage of partners for persons who are in younger (<), the same (=), or older (>) age groups.
dEstimate of the prevaccination natural history of HPV infection.
eProbability that within 1 year a person of a given age group will stop shedding HPV and the probability that HPV infection will completely regress.

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