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Volume 10, Number 4—April 2004

Research

Predicting Geographic Variation in Cutaneous Leishmaniasis, Colombia

Raymond J. King*Comments to Author , Diarmid H. Campbell-Lendrum†, and Clive R. Davies†
Author affiliations: *Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA; †London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom

Main Article

Figure 4

Performance of whole country model versus combination of zonal models. A. Receiver operator curve. Black line, single model for all Colombia (area under the curve [AUC] = 72.4%); gray line, combination of zonal models (AUC = 84.4%). Diagonal line indicates success expected on the basis of chance (AUC = 50%). B. κ value, representing skill at discriminating positive and negative municipalities, above the level expected on the basis of chance. Black line, single model for all Colombia; gray line,

Figure 4. Performance of whole country model versus combination of zonal models. A. Receiver operator curve. Black line, single model for all Colombia (area under the curve [AUC] = 72.4%); gray line, combination of zonal models (AUC = 84.4%). Diagonal line indicates success expected on the basis of chance (AUC = 50%). B. κ value, representing skill at discriminating positive and negative municipalities, above the level expected on the basis of chance. Black line, single model for all Colombia; gray line, combination of zonal models. The probability threshold is the value on the continuous scale of predicted probability of transmission that is used as the cut-off for conversion into a categorical prediction of presence versus absence.

Main Article

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