Predicting Geographic Variation in Cutaneous Leishmaniasis, Colombia
Figure 4. Performance of whole country model versus combination of zonal models. A. Receiver operator curve. Black line, single model for all Colombia (area under the curve [AUC] = 72.4%); gray line, combination of zonal models (AUC = 84.4%). Diagonal line indicates success expected on the basis of chance (AUC = 50%). B. κ value, representing skill at discriminating positive and negative municipalities, above the level expected on the basis of chance. Black line, single model for all Colombia; gray line, combination of zonal models. The probability threshold is the value on the continuous scale of predicted probability of transmission that is used as the cut-off for conversion into a categorical prediction of presence versus absence.