Seasonal Forecast of St. Louis Encephalitis Virus Transmission, Florida
Figure 4. a) Best-fit bivariate logistic regression model of epidemic St. Louis encephalitis virus (SLEV) transmission based on the 1986–1991 record. Plotted for a continuous range of modeled water table depths (WTD) 11 weeks before transmission and fixed values of current modeled water table depths. b) Best-fit logistic regression model of epidemic SLEV transmission based on the 1978–1997 sentinel chicken record. Only antecedent drought conditions are statistically significant. Plotted for a continuous range of modeled water table depths 16 weeks before transmission.