TY - JOUR AU - Shaman, Jeffrey AU - Day, Jonathan F. AU - Stieglitz, Marc AU - Zebiak, Stephen AU - Cane, Mark T1 - Seasonal Forecast of St. Louis Encephalitis Virus Transmission, Florida T2 - Emerging Infectious Disease journal PY - 2004 VL - 10 IS - 5 SP - 802 SN - 1080-6059 AB - Disease transmission forecasts can help minimize human and domestic animal health risks by indicating where disease control and prevention efforts should be focused. For disease systems in which weather-related variables affect pathogen proliferation, dispersal, or transmission, the potential for disease forecasting exists. We present a seasonal forecast of St. Louis encephalitis virus transmission in Indian River County, Florida. We derive an empirical relationship between modeled land surface wetness and levels of SLEV transmission in humans. We then use these data to forecast SLEV transmission with a seasonal lead. Forecast skill is demonstrated, and a real-time seasonal forecast of epidemic SLEV transmission is presented. This study demonstrates how weather and climate forecast skill verification analyses may be applied to test the predictability of an empirical disease forecast model. KW - St. Louis Encephalitis KW - amplification KW - transmission KW - entomology KW - Culex nigripalpus KW - hydrology KW - drought KW - dynamic modeling KW - forecast KW - Florida KW - United States DO - 10.3201/eid1005.030246 UR - https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/10/5/03-0246_article ER - End of Reference