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Volume 10, Number 7—July 2004
Perspective

Estimating Time and Size of Bioterror Attack

Johan Walden* and Edward H. Kaplan*†Comments to Author 
Author affiliations: *Yale School of Management, New Haven, Connecticut, USA; †Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, Connecticut, USA

Main Article

Table

Real-time estimates of size and time of attack, given the total cases observed in the simulated outbreaka

Days past case no. 1 Total cases Estimated attack size Estimated day of attack
(before case no. 1)
1 5 850 1.1
2 7 120 1.9
3 15 160 1.4
4 18 100 1.8
5 23 90 1.8

aSee Appendix for details.

Main Article

Page created: April 23, 2012
Page updated: April 23, 2012
Page reviewed: April 23, 2012
The conclusions, findings, and opinions expressed by authors contributing to this journal do not necessarily reflect the official position of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, the Public Health Service, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, or the authors' affiliated institutions. Use of trade names is for identification only and does not imply endorsement by any of the groups named above.
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