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Volume 10, Number 7—July 2004

Research

Alert Threshold Algorithms and Malaria Epidemic Detection

Hailay Desta Teklehaimanot*, Joel Schwartz*, Awash Teklehaimanot†, and Marc Lipsitch*
Author affiliations: *Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, USA; †Columbia University, New York, New York, USA

Main Article

Table 2

Potentially preventable cases (PPC) by level of the seasonal percentile threshold in relation to number of alerts per year (8-week window)

District Six alert threshold levels based on seasonal percentile
95th percentile
90th percentile
85th percentile
80th percentile
75th percentile
70th percentile
No. alerts % PPC No. alerts % PPC No. alerts % PPC No. alerts % PPC No. alerts % PPC No. alerts % PPC
Alaba 0.44 18.6 0.53 20.1 0.62 24.5 0.62 23.4 0.8 28.8 0.97 30.1
Awasa 0.55 28.1 0.65 28.1 0.65 35.6 0.91 32.9 0.91 32.9 1.0 20.2
Bahirdar 0.55 27.9 0.55 27.9 0.55 27.9 0.82 37.6 0.82 38.4 0.82 38.4
Debrezeit 0.27 19.8 0.54 28.5 0.54 37 0.54 36.2 0.54 36.2 0.8 39
Diredawa 0.61 25.2 0.61 26.6 0.82 26.9 0.82 26.9 1.1 31 1.1 31.1
Hosana 0.35 25.6 0.62 32.6 0.71 33.5 0.8 34.3 0.97 28 0.97 28
Jimma 0.39 24.9 0.39 24.9 0.78 31.8 0.87 33.1 0.97 32.1 0.87 31.9
Nazareth 0.54 33.9 0.54 33.9 0.86 34 0.86 34 1.1 18.7 1.2 19.7
Wolayita 0.54 24.8 0.54 24.8 0.86 30.5 0.86 30.5 0.97 29.9 1.1 29.9
Zeway 0.36 30.2 0.36 30.2 0.84 37.2 0.84 37.2 0.84 36.4 0.84 28.5
Total 0.46 25.9 0.53 27.8 0.72 31.9 0.79 32.6 0.9 31.2 0.97 29.7

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