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Volume 10, Number 9—September 2004

Research

Space-Time Cluster Analysis of Invasive Meningococcal Disease

Christian J.P.A. Hoebe*Comments to Author , Hester de Melker†, Lodewijk Spanjaard‡, Jacob Dankert‡1, and Nico Nagelkerke†
Author affiliations: *Eastern South Limburg Municipal Public Health Service, Heerlen, the Netherlands; †National Institute of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, the Netherlands; ‡Netherlands Reference Laboratory for Bacterial Meningitis, Amsterdam, the Netherlands; 1Deceased 24 January 2004.

Main Article

Table 2

Clustering of meningococcal disease cases by serosubtype (serogroup, serotype, and subtype)a,b

Serosubtypes (phenotype) Field clustersc Cases/cluster % excess probability 95% CI n
B:1:P1.4 1 Primary school 3 12.0 4.2%–19.7% 87
B:1:P1.14 1 Swimming pool 4 7.2 NS (–8.0% to 22.4%) 25
B:1:P1.16 1 Primary school 3 10.0 2.4%–17.6% 92
1 Daycare center 2
1 Household 2
B:4:P1.2,5 1 Household 2 1.9 NS (–3.8% to 7.7%) 52
B:4:P1.4 2 Primary schools 3 and 5 2.0 NS (–0.7% to 4.6%) 1,376
4 Primary schools 2
2 Daycare centers 2 and 3
6 Households 2
B:4:P1.5 1 Daycare center 2 20.0 3.2%–36.9% 25
B:4:P1.7 NFC 6.4 NS (–2.7% to 15.5%) 47
B:4:P1.9 1 Primary school 3 7.2 NS (–8.0% to 22.4%) 36
B:4:P1.10 1 Household 2 4.8 0.1%–9.5% 205
B:4:P1.14 NFC 5.9 NS (–2.5% to 14.2%) 34
B:4:P1.15 NFC 4.0 NS (–0.4% to 8.4%) 129
B:4:P1.16 1 Household 2 2.2 NS (–2.4% to 6.8%) 63
B:4:P1.NT 1 Primary school 2 2.6 NS (–0.8% to 6.1%) 455
1 Daycare center 2
1 Household 3
B:NT:P1.14 2 Households 2 and 3 13.0 NS (–1.9% to 27.9%) 23
B:NT:P1.15 1 Household 2 7.2 NS (–1.7% to 16.0%) 39
B:NT:P1.16 1 Household 2 10.0 NS (–4.4% to 24.4%) 20
B:NT:P1.NT 1 Household 2 10.7 4.7%–16.8% 123
B:14:P1.4 1 Daycare center 2 0.9 NS (1.4% to 12.2%) 85
1 Household 2
B:15:P1.7 NFC 11.3 0.1%–22.6% 53
B:15:P1.7,16 1 Primary school 2 6.8 1.4%–12.2% 109
B:15:P1.9 1 Household 2 10 NS (–1.4% to 21.4%) 30
B:16:P1.14 1 Household 2 d 10
B:16:P1.2,5 1 Daycare center 3 13.6 NS (–1.9% to 29.2%) 22
C:2a:P1.2,5 1 Household 2 –1.0 NS (–5.4% to 3.4%) 164
C:NT:P1.5 NFC 10 NS (–4.4% to 24.4%) 20
C:14:P1.12 1 Household 2 d 2

aThe following results are shown: serosubtypes with reported field clusters, serosubtypes with significant excess probability for clustering by nearest-neighbor analysis, and serosubtypes with nonsignificant excess probability of more than 3% (bold percentages significant).
bCI, confidence interval; NT, not typable; NS, not significant.
cNFC, no field cluster was reported for this serotype.
dCalculating excess probability not possible because n is too small.

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