Modeling Control Strategies of Respiratory Pathogens
Figure 2. . Transmission- vs. contact-reduction intervention. A) Transmission-reduction intervention: solid curves show the average size of an outbreak (left panel) and the probability of a large-scale epidemic (right panel). The horizontal axes cover the spectrum of disease transmissibility (from 0 to 1) such that a single disease is associated with a unique value on either the left curve (if T<Tc) or the right curve (if T>Tc). The epidemic threshold Tc separates the 2 zones. For better visualization, we chose 2 different scales for horizontal axes of the 2 panels. Consider a disease with T = 0.245 (top black circle). A transmission-reduction intervention causes the black circle to slide on a new position on the curve. A successful intervention is the one that lowers T to a value <Tc. B) Contact-reduction intervention: solid curves in the top panel show the epidemiologic vulnerability of the original network. Contact-reduction interventions alter the structure of the contact network and shift the epidemic curves to the right (solid curves in bottom panel). The 2 dashed vertical lines show the critical transmissibility threshold for the old (left) and new (right) networks. Consider the disease denoted by the black circle: the contact-reduction intervention raised the epidemic threshold above transmissibility of the disease and thereby eliminated the possibility of an epidemic.