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Volume 11, Number 8—August 2005

Dispatch

Cost-Benefit of Stockpiling Drugs for Influenza Pandemic

Ran D. Balicer*†Comments to Author , Michael Huerta*, Nadav Davidovitch*†, and Itamar Grotto*†
Author affiliations: *Ministry of Health, Jerusalem, Israel; †Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Be'er-Sheva, Israel

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Table A3

Neuraminidase efficacy and related parameters included in the model

Variable Point estimate Range Reference
Efficacy of antiviral prophylaxis*
Preexposure prophylaxis† 71 57–85 24,28
Postexposure prophylaxis† 36 25–47 29
Efficacy of antiviral therapy
% reduction in hospitalization 59 30–70 27
% reduction in antimicrobial drug use 63 40–80 26
Reduction in lost work days under treatment 1 0.5–1.5 26
Annual probability of pandemic (%) 3 1–10 Assumed
% patients seeking medical care within 48 hours 80 70–90 16

*Efficacy presented as percent reduction of attack rate.
†Based on a meta-analysis of 2 studies (see text for details).

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