Volume 11, Number 8—August 2005
Dispatch
Cost-Benefit of Stockpiling Drugs for Influenza Pandemic
Ran D. Balicer*†
, Michael Huerta*, Nadav Davidovitch*†, and Itamar Grotto*†
, Michael Huerta*, Nadav Davidovitch*†, and Itamar Grotto*†Table A3
Neuraminidase efficacy and related parameters included in the model
| Variable | Point estimate | Range | Reference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Efficacy of antiviral prophylaxis* | |||
| Preexposure prophylaxis† | 71 | 57–85 | 24,28 |
| Postexposure prophylaxis† | 36 | 25–47 | 29 |
| Efficacy of antiviral therapy | |||
| % reduction in hospitalization | 59 | 30–70 | 27 |
| % reduction in antimicrobial drug use | 63 | 40–80 | 26 |
| Reduction in lost work days under treatment | 1 | 0.5–1.5 | 26 |
| Annual probability of pandemic (%) | 3 | 1–10 | Assumed |
| % patients seeking medical care within 48 hours | 80 | 70–90 | 16 |
*Efficacy presented as percent reduction of attack rate.
†Based on a meta-analysis of 2 studies (see text for details).
