Volume 12, Number 1—January 2006
Research
Real-time Forecast of Multiphase Outbreak
Ying-Hen Hsieh*
and Yuan-Sen Cheng*
and Yuan-Sen Cheng*
Table 1
Estimates of parameters for Richards model using cumulative case data of selected time periods in phase 1 of 2003 Toronto area SARS outbreak starting from February 23 with 95% confidence interval for the maximum case number K*
| End date | Growth rate | Exponent of deviation | Turning point | Maximum case no. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25 | 0.859 | 4.835 | 25.09 | 60.10 (54.71–65.49) |
| Apr 4 | 0.146 | 0.689 | 30.06 | 140.53 (115.88–165.17) |
| Apr 14 | 0.152 | 0.773 | 30.50 | 142.78 (137.34–148.22) |
| Apr 24 | 0.147 | 0.718 | 30.45 | 143.99 (141.76–146.21) |
| Apr 26 | 0.146 | 0.710 | 30.43 | 144.14 (142.19–146.09) |
| Apr 28 | 0.146 | 0.709 | 30.43 | 144.14 (142.42–145.86) |
| Apr 30 | 0.144 | 0.693 | 30.40 | 144.41 (142.85–145.96) |
| May 2 | 0.142 | 0.664 | 30.35 | 144.84 (143.40–146.29) |
*SARS, severe acute respiratory syndrome.
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