TY - JOUR AU - Hsieh, Ying-Hen AU - Cheng, Yuan-Sen T1 - Real-time Forecast of Multiphase Outbreak T2 - Emerging Infectious Disease journal PY - 2006 VL - 12 IS - 1 SP - 122 SN - 1080-6059 AB - We used a single equation with discrete phases to fit the daily cumulative case data from the 2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome outbreak in Toronto. This model enabled us to estimate turning points and case numbers during the 2 phases of this outbreak. The 3 estimated turning points are March 25, April 27, and May 24. The estimated case number during the first phase of the outbreak between February 23 and April 26 is 140.53 (95% confidence interval [CI] 115.88–165.17) if we use the data from February 23 to April 4; and 249 (95% CI: 246.67–251.25) at the end of the second phase on June 12 if we use the data from April 28 to June 4. The second phase can be detected by using case data just 3 days past the beginning of the phase, while the first and third turning points can be identified only ≈10 days afterwards. Our modeling procedure provides insights into ongoing outbreaks that may facilitate real-time public health responses. KW - SARS KW - emerging infectious disease KW - Canada KW - Toronto KW - turning point KW - Richards model KW - case data KW - public health KW - research DO - 10.3201/eid1201.050396 UR - https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/12/1/05-0396_article ER - End of Reference