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Volume 12, Number 11—November 2006

Research

Targeted Social Distancing Designs for Pandemic Influenza

Robert J. Glass*Comments to Author , Laura M. Glass†, Walter E. Beyeler*, and H. Jason Min*
Author affiliations: *Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, New Mexico, USA; †Albuquerque Public High School, Albuquerque, New Mexico, USA

Main Article

Figure 7

Fraction of unmitigated base case attack rate for targeted social distancing of children and teenagers as a function of A) implementation policy threshold given by the number of symptomatic cases (compliance at 90%) and B) compliance with staying at home (implementation policy threshold at 10 symptomatic cases, 0% compliance closes schools alone). Each point represents the average of simulations of 100 that yielded epidemics (>100 infected). Standard deviations for variation of threshold are

Figure 7. Fraction of unmitigated base case attack rate for targeted social distancing of children and teenagers as a function of A) implementation policy threshold given by the number of symptomatic cases (compliance at 90%) and B) compliance with staying at home (implementation policy threshold at 10 symptomatic cases, 0% compliance closes schools alone). Each point represents the average of simulations of 100 that yielded epidemics (>100 infected). Standard deviations for variation of threshold are <3% of the total population. However, for compliance variation, standard deviations increase to a maximum of 7% of the total population at a compliance of 30%.

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