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Volume 12, Number 11—November 2006

Research

Targeted Social Distancing Designs for Pandemic Influenza

Robert J. Glass*Comments to Author , Laura M. Glass†, Walter E. Beyeler*, and H. Jason Min*
Author affiliations: *Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, New Mexico, USA; †Albuquerque Public High School, Albuquerque, New Mexico, USA

Main Article

Table 2

Results for base case and miigation strategies*

Strategy Averages for all simulations
Averages for simulations with epidemics
No. simulations Total infected Total time (d) Peak infected Time to peak (d) No. epidemics Total infected Total time (d) Peak infected Time to peak (d)
Case 1: Base case pandemic influenza
Average 1,000 4,908 81 688 35 978 5,018 82 703 36
SD 748 14 121 8 153 11 66 6
Case 2: Schools closed after 10 symptomatic cases, compliance 90%
Average 100 3,877 113 326 48 99 3,916 114 329 48
SD 468 22 64 13 259 19 56 12
% reduction from base case 21 -40 53 -36 22 -39 53 -34
Case 3: Schools closed after 10 symptomatic cases, nonschool contacts doubled, compliance 90%
Average 100 5,604 76 850 34 95 5,898 79 894 35
SD 1,293 18 206 9 122 10 72 6
% reduction from base case -14 6 -24 4 -18 4 -27 2
Case 4: Schools closed after 10 symptomatic cases, children and teenagers kept home, household contacts doubled, compliance 90%
Average 100 341 60 43 16 93 361 62 45 17
SD 209 25 20 12 203 24 19 12
% reduction from base case 93 26 94 53 93 25 94 52
Case 5: Schools closed after 10 symptomatic cases, children and teenagers kept home, household contacts doubled, compliance 50%
Average 100 1,551 135 90 47 95 1,630 141 94 49
SD 692 49 40 31 614 42 37 30
% reduction from base case 68 -67 87 -33 68 -72 87 -36
Case 6: Schools closed after 10 symptomatic cases, children kept home, household contacts doubled, compliance 90%
Average 100 2,539 116 199 49 96 2,642 120 206 51
SD 661 30 66 17 433 23 56 14
% reduction from base case 48 -44 71 -38 47 -46 71 -40
Case 7: All with symptomatic cases stay at home, compliance 90%
Average 100 3,692 91 408 41 94 3,926 95 433 43
SD 1,031 25 130 14 458 17 85 10
% reduction from base case 25 -12 41 -16 22 -16 38 -20

*Cases 2–7 are targeted social distancing strategies. Negative percent reductions reflect percent increases. Epidemics are defined as >100 infected. SD, standard deviation.

*Cases 2–7 are targeted social distancing strategies. Negative percent reductions reflect percent increases. Epidemics are defined as >100 infected. SD, standard deviation.

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