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Volume 12, Number 11—November 2006

Research

Targeted Social Distancing Designs for Pandemic Influenza

Robert J. Glass*Comments to Author , Laura M. Glass†, Walter E. Beyeler*, and H. Jason Min*
Author affiliations: *Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, New Mexico, USA; †Albuquerque Public High School, Albuquerque, New Mexico, USA

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Table 4

Unmitigated case results for Ro and average attack rates (%) for increasing ID and base case, variation 1, variation 2, and variations 1 and 2 combined*

Type ID factor Ro Attack rates
Overall SD Children SD Teenagers SD Adults SD Older adults SD
Base case 1.0 1.6 51 1.7 79 2.3 72 2.7 45 1.8 23 2.0
1.25 1.8 66 1.2 90 1.1 85 1.7 61 1.5 36 2.1
1.5 2.0 75 0.7 95 0.6 92 1.1 71 0.9 47 1.9
2.0 2.4 86 0.6 99 0.3 97 0.5 84 0.7 64 2.0
Variation 1 1.0 1.5 52 2.2 65 2.8 68 3.2 50 2.2 30 2.5
1.25 1.7 70 1.3 82 1.4 84 1.8 68 1.5 47 2.3
1.5 1.9 80 0.8 90 1.0 91 0.9 79 0.9 60 2.0
2.0 2.4 90 0.5 96 0.6 97 0.7 90 0.6 76 1.6
Variation 2 1.0 1.5 52 1.9 72 2.6 64 2.9 50 2.1 19 1.7
1.25 1.8 68 1.0 87 1.3 81 1.6 68 1.3 31 2.1
1.5 1.9 78 0.8 93 0.9 89 1.2 79 1.0 41 2.2
2.0 2.3 88 0.5 98 0.4 96 0.7 90 0.7 57 1.9
Variations 1 and 2 combined 1.0 1.5 52 2.0 55 2.3 57 2.7 56 2.3 23 1.7
1.25 1.8 70 1.1 74 1.8 76 1.9 75 1.2 37 2.0
1.5 2.0 80 0.8 84 1.2 85 1.2 85 0.8 48 2.0
2.0 2.4 90 0.4 93 0.6 94 0.9 94 0.5 65 1.8

*Variation 1 is removal of relative infectivity and susceptibility; variation 2 is an increase in work group frequency of contact to give all children, teenagers, and adults the same overall contact frequencies. Average attack rates accumulate over only those simulations that resulted in epidemics (>100 infected). RO, reproductive number; ID, disease infectivity; SD, standard deviation.

*Variation 1 is removal of relative infectivity and susceptibility; variation 2 is an increase in work group frequency of contact to give all children, teenagers, and adults the same overall contact frequencies. Average attack rates accumulate over only those simulations that resulted in epidemics (>100 infected). RO, reproductive number; ID, disease infectivity; SD, standard deviation.

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