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Volume 12, Number 2—February 2006

Research

Free-grazing Ducks and Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza, Thailand

Marius Gilbert*Comments to Author , Prasit Chaitaweesub†, Tippawon Parakamawongsa†, Sith Premashthira†, Thanawat Tiensin†‡, Wantanee Kalpravidh§, Hans Wagner§, and Jan Slingenbergh§¶
Author affiliations: *Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium; †Department of Livestock Development, Bangkok, Thailand; ‡Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands; §Food and Agriculture Organization, Bangkok, Thailand; ¶Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome, Italy

Main Article

Table 2

Parameters of autologistic regression models of highly pathogenic avian influenza presence or absence as a function of selected poultry and other environmental variables

Model Variable* Parameter SE Wald statistic p value
Thailand, all outbreaks
Art 37.03 1.69 482.5 <0.001
FgDu 2.47 × 10-5 3.67 × 10-6 45.3 <0.001
NaCh 1.63 × 10-5 4.18 × 10-6 15.1 <0.001
Alt –3.60 × 10-3 1.00× 10-3 12.9 <0.001
Co 1.12 × 10-4 3.21 × 10-5 12.1 <0.001
Hpop 1.03 × 10-5 3.10 × 10-6 10.9 <0.001
Alt2 2.40 × 10-6 1.01 × 10-6 5.7 0.017
Intercept –2.93 0.16 317.9 <0.001
Thailand, outbreaks in chicken
Art 44.49 2.33 363.2 <0.001
FgDu 1.76 × 10-5 3.25 × 10-6 29.5 <0.001
NaCh 1.62 × 10-5 4.23 × 10-6 14.7 <0.001
Alt –3.91 × 10-3 1.03 × 10-3 14.6 <0.001
Alt2 2.73 × 10-6 9.96 × 10-7 7.5 0.006
Co 7.55 × 10-5 2.98 × 10-5 6.4 0.011
Hpop 7.85 ×10-6 3.50 × 10-6 5.0 0.025
Intercept –2.92 0.17 302.9 <0.001
Thailand, outbreaks in ducks
Art 41.60 2.87 209.9 <0.001
FgDu 2.94 × 10-5 3.65 × 10-6 64.9 <0.001
Alt –1.15 × 10-2 2.16 × 10-3 28.4 <0.001
Alt2 7.63 × 10-6 1.83 × 10-6 17.4 <0.001
Price10K 9.24 × 10-1 2.39 × 10-1 14.9 <0.001
Co 4.78 × 10-5 1.66 × 10-5 8.2 0.004
Hpop 1.22 × 10-5 4.65 × 10-6 6.9 0.009
MeLaDu 5.96 × 10-6 2.66 × 10-6 5.0 0.025
Intercept –3.33 0.31 112.2 <0.001
Suphanburi Province, all outbreaks
Price5K 3.70 0.621 35.6 <0.001
FgDu 9.46 × 10-5 2.03 × 10-5 21.7 <0.001
MeLaDu 7.47 × 10-5 2.52 × 10-5 8.8 0.003
NaCh 2.09 × 10-4 8.27 × 10-5 6.4 0.012
Intercept –4.89 0.511 91.6 <0.001
Suphanburi Province, outbreaks in chickens
Price5K 4.64 1.135 16.7 <0.001
NaCh 3.01 × 10-4 1.00 × 10-4 9.0 0.003
MeLaDu 7.00 × 10-5 2.60 × 10-5 7.2 0.007
FgDu 4.54 × 10-5 1.81 × 10-5 6.3 0.012
Intercept –6.74 0.960 49.3 <0.001
Suphanburi Province, outbreaks in ducks
Price5K 3.76 0.742 25.7 <0.001
FgDu 8.67 × 10-5 1.87 × 10-5 21.4 <0.001
MeLaDu 7.16 × 10-5 2.39 × 10-5 9.0 0.003
Intercept –5.16 0.604 73.1 <0.001

*SE, standard error; Art, autoregressive term. For descriptions and abbreviations of other variables, see Table 1.

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