Volume 12, Number 2—February 2006
Research
Free-grazing Ducks and Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza, Thailand
Marius Gilbert*
, Prasit Chaitaweesub†, Tippawon Parakamawongsa†, Sith Premashthira†, Thanawat Tiensin†‡, Wantanee Kalpravidh§, Hans Wagner§, and Jan Slingenbergh§¶
, Prasit Chaitaweesub†, Tippawon Parakamawongsa†, Sith Premashthira†, Thanawat Tiensin†‡, Wantanee Kalpravidh§, Hans Wagner§, and Jan Slingenbergh§¶Table 3
Results of autologistic regression models of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza as a function of variables shown in Table 2
| Model | –2 log likelihood | χ2 | p value | AUC* |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Thailand, all outbreaks | 3,812.8 | 1,294.3 | <0.001 | 0.854 ± 0.014 |
| All Thailand, outbreaks in chickens | 3,455.9 | 812.9 | <0.001 | 0.828 ± 0.018 |
| All Thailand, outbreaks in ducks | 1,634.7 | 781.7 | <0.001 | 0.894 ± 0.021 |
| Suphanburi Province, all outbreaks | 691.4 | 135.8 | <0.001 | 0.783 ± 0.039 |
| Suphanburi Province, outbreaks in chickens | 374 | 63.05 | <0.001 | 0.794 ± 0.061 |
| Suphanburi Province, outbreaks in ducks | 585.8 | 106.8 | <0.001 | 0.767 ± 0.045 |
*Area under the curve of the receiver-operating characteristics plot.
