Volume 12, Number 2—February 2006
Research
Epizootiologic Parameters for Plague in Kazakhstan
Michael Begon*
, Nikolay Klassovskiy†, Vladimir Ageyev†, Bakhtiar Suleimenov†, Bakhyt Atshabar†, and Malcolm Bennett*
, Nikolay Klassovskiy†, Vladimir Ageyev†, Bakhtiar Suleimenov†, Bakhyt Atshabar†, and Malcolm Bennett*Table 1
Estimates of coefficients, standard errors, and significance based on z tests for optimal generalized linear model for whether animals were recaptured after release
| Comparator | Effect | Estimate | Standard error | z value | p(>|z|) value* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Intercept | –0.098 | 0.17 | –0.59 | 0.56 | |
| Summer | Winter | –1.12 | 0.20 | –5.48 | 4.3 × 10-8 |
| Adult | Subadult | 0.09 | 0.23 | 0.41 | 0.69 |
| Adult | Juvenile | –0.50 | 0.32 | –1.57 | 0.12 |
| Year 1 | Year 2 | –1.23 | 0.25 | –5.00 | 5.5 × 10-7 |
| Year 1 | Year 3 | –4.85 | 1.49 | –3.25 | 0.0011 |
| Antibody negative | Positive | –0.30 | 0.16 | –1.90 | 0.058 |
| Summer × year 1 | Winter × year 2 | 0.85 | 0.34 | –2.47 | 0.014 |
| Summer × year 1 | Winter × year 3 | 4.12 | 1.48 | 2.80 | 0.0051 |
| Adult × year 1 | Subadult × year 2 | 0.99 | 0.35 | 2.85 | 0.0044 |
| Adult × year 1 | Subadult × year 3 | 1.32 | 0.48 | 2.77 | 0.0056 |
| Adult × year 1 | Juvenile × year 2 | 2.43 | 1.55 | 1.57 | 0.12 |
| Adult × year 1 | Juvenile × year 3 | 3.70 | 1.21 | 3.05 | 0.0023 |
*Probability of exceeding the z value by chance alone.
