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Volume 13, Number 4—April 2007

Research

Effectiveness of Interventions to Reduce Contact Rates during a Simulated Influenza Pandemic

Michael J. Haber*Comments to Author , Davis K. Shay†, Xiaohong M. Davis†, Rajan Patel‡, Xiaoping Jin†, Eric Weintraub†, Evan Orenstein§, and William W. Thompson†
Author affiliations: *Emory University Rollins School of Public Health, Atlanta, Georgia, USA; †Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA; ‡Amgen, Inc., Thousand Oaks, California, USA; §Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, USA

Main Article

Table 2

Estimated effects of pandemic interventions in long-term care facilities (LTCFs) on illness, hospitalization, and death rates

Outcome rates Rates for general population
Rates for LTCF residents
Illness Hospitalization Death Illness Hospitalization Death
Reduction in contacts with ill residents (%)
25 0.02* 0.10 0.14 0.22 0.32 0.33
50 0.04 0.13 0.23 0.37 0.44 0.41
75 0.04 0.14 0.24 0.54 0.55 0.59
100 0.03 0.14 0.21 0.65 0.60 0.60
Reduction in contacts with visitors (%)
25 0.01 0.11 0.12 −0.02 0.03 −0.03
50 0.02 0.06 −0.02 0.03 −0.05 −0.05
75 0.04 0.15 0.20 0.00 0.05 −0.03
100 0.04 0.07 0.12 0.03 0.11 0.11

*Thus, a 25% reduction in contacts with ill residents of LTCFs was estimated to reduce the illness rate for the population by 2% and the illness rate for LTCFs by 22%.

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