Volume 13, Number 4—April 2007
Research
Effectiveness of Interventions to Reduce Contact Rates during a Simulated Influenza Pandemic
Michael J. Haber*
, Davis K. Shay†, Xiaohong M. Davis†, Rajan Patel‡, Xiaoping Jin†, Eric Weintraub†, Evan Orenstein§, and William W. Thompson†
, Davis K. Shay†, Xiaohong M. Davis†, Rajan Patel‡, Xiaoping Jin†, Eric Weintraub†, Evan Orenstein§, and William W. Thompson†Table 2
Estimated effects of pandemic interventions in long-term care facilities (LTCFs) on illness, hospitalization, and death rates
| Outcome rates | Rates for general population |
Rates for LTCF residents |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illness | Hospitalization | Death | Illness | Hospitalization | Death | |
| Reduction in contacts with ill residents (%) | ||||||
| 25 | 0.02* | 0.10 | 0.14 | 0.22 | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| 50 | 0.04 | 0.13 | 0.23 | 0.37 | 0.44 | 0.41 |
| 75 | 0.04 | 0.14 | 0.24 | 0.54 | 0.55 | 0.59 |
| 100 | 0.03 | 0.14 | 0.21 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| Reduction in contacts with visitors (%) | ||||||
| 25 | 0.01 | 0.11 | 0.12 | −0.02 | 0.03 | −0.03 |
| 50 | 0.02 | 0.06 | −0.02 | 0.03 | −0.05 | −0.05 |
| 75 | 0.04 | 0.15 | 0.20 | 0.00 | 0.05 | −0.03 |
| 100 | 0.04 | 0.07 | 0.12 | 0.03 | 0.11 | 0.11 |
*Thus, a 25% reduction in contacts with ill residents of LTCFs was estimated to reduce the illness rate for the population by 2% and the illness rate for LTCFs by 22%.
