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Volume 13, Number 9—September 2007

Research

Frequent Travelers and Rate of Spread of Epidemics

T. Déirdre Hollingsworth*Comments to Author , Neil M. Ferguson*, and Roy M. Anderson*
Author affiliations: *Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom;

Main Article

Table 2

Variability between runs in an epidemiologic model that simulates exportation of cases from SARS-like and influenza-like epidemics*

Mixing pattern
First case
No. cases exported, mean, median (5th–95th percentile)
Day 10
Day 20
Day 30
Day 40
Day 50
SARS
Homogeneous flying patterns 0, 0 (0–0) 0, 0 (0–1) 1, 0 (0–3) 3, 1 (0–7) 7, 5 (1–16)
Random mixing High 1, 0 (0–2) 2, 0 (0–2) 2, 1 (0–3) 4, 2 (1–7) 7, 5 (2–14)
Low 0, 0 (0–0) 0, 0 (0–1) 1, 0 (0–3) 3, 1 (0–6) 7, 5 (1–15)
Moderately assortative High 2, 1 (0–3) 3, 2 (1–4) 4 (3, 1–7) 6 (4, 2–12) 9, 7 (2–20)
Low 0, 0 (0–0) 0, 0 (0–1) 1, 0 (0–2) 3, 1 (0–6) 7, 5 (0–15)
Highly assortative
High 2, 1 (0–3) 4, 2 (1–7) 5, 5 (2–13) 10, 8 (3–22) 16, 12 (4–38)
Low
0, 0 (0–0)
0, 0 (0–1)
1, 0 (0–2)
3, 1 (0–6)
6, 4 (1–15)
Influenza
Homogeneous flying patterns 1, 0 (0–1) 8, 5 (0–20) 107, 85 (1–251) 1,268, 1,069 
(7–3,118) 15,729, 13,541 
(73–35,132)
Random mixing High 1, 0 (0–2) 7, 5 (0–18) 89, 74 (1–233) 1,341, 940 
(1–3,049) 14,592, 11,990 
(1–35,632)
Low 0, 0 (0–1) 7, 5 (0–18) 95, 78 (1– 246) 1,264, 1,057 
(7–3,256) 15,668, 13,651 
(74– 35,231)
Moderately assortative High 2, 0 (0–3) 8, 6 (0–32) 93, 72 (1–231) 1,288, 1,138 
(1–3,387) 15,505, 14,362 
(1–32,134)
Low 1, 0 (0–1) 7, 5 (0–20) 104, 83 (0–264) 1,411, 1,213 
(0–3,526) 17,081, 15,850 
(0–35,403)
Highly assortative
High 3, 2 (0–7) 15, 10 (2–41) 106, 81 (2–291) 1,166, 840 
(2–2,923) 14,145, 10,770 
(2–34,351)
Low
0, 0 (0–2)
12, 0 (0–33)
164, 139 (0–246)
1,312, 967 
(1–3,231)
16,592, 12,607 
(28–36,643)
*Means are shown in Figure 2. SARS, severe acute respiratory syndrome.

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