A Model-based Assessment of Oseltamivir Prophylaxis Strategies to Prevent Influenza in Nursing Homes
Carline van den Dool , Eelko Hak, Marc J.M. Bonten1, and Jacco Wallinga1
Author affiliations: University Medical Center, Utrecht, the Netherlands (C. van den Dool, E. Hak, M.J.M. Bonten, J. Wallinga); University Medical Center, Groningen, the Netherlands (E. Hak); National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, the Netherlands (J. Wallinga)
Figure 1. Schematic diagram of our stochastic individual-based model. A) The different types of persons in the nursing home: patients, healthcare workers (HCWs), and visitors. B) The time course of infection: S, susceptible; E, exposed; Ia, infectious and asymptomatic; Is, infectious and symptomatic; R, recovered/immune; Rp, immune while using prophylaxis. For all patients and HCWs in the model, we kept track of their stage in this infection cycle in time. If the influenza strain that is transmitted is resistant to oseltamivir, persons in the Rp department can still become infected (dashed arrow).
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