Fine-scale Identification of the Most Likely Source of a Human Plague Infection
Rebecca E. Colman, Amy J. Vogler, Jennifer L. Lowell, Kenneth L. Gage, Christina Morway, Pamela J. Reynolds, Paul Ettestad, Paul Keim, Michael Y. Kosoy, and David M. Wagner
Author affiliations: Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, Arizona, USA (R.E. Colman, A.J. Vogler, P. Keim, D. Wagner); Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA (J.L. Lowell, K.L. Gage, C. Morway, M.Y. Kosoy); New Mexico Department of Health, Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA (P.J. Reynolds, P. Ettestad)
Figure 2. Alternate infection source hypotheses for the plague cases in the persons who visited New York, New York, USA. Closed circles indicate genotypes; black, red, and blue circles indicate genotypes A, B, and C, respectively. Individual mutations are indicated as vertical lines on the comparisons and are labeled with the locus that mutated and the number of repeats involved in the mutations. Overall relative probabilities (ORP) based on Yersinia pestis mutation rates are presented for each comparison.
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