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Volume 15, Number 10—October 2009

Dispatch

Fine-scale Identification of the Most Likely Source of a Human Plague Infection

Rebecca E. Colman, Amy J. Vogler, Jennifer L. Lowell, Kenneth L. Gage, Christina Morway, Pamela J. Reynolds, Paul Ettestad, Paul Keim, Michael Y. Kosoy, and David M. WagnerComments to Author 
Author affiliations: Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, Arizona, USA (R.E. Colman, A.J. Vogler, P. Keim, D. Wagner); Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA (J.L. Lowell, K.L. Gage, C. Morway, M.Y. Kosoy); New Mexico Department of Health, Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA (P.J. Reynolds, P. Ettestad)

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Table 2

Overall relative probabilities of isolates with genotypes B or C as the source of a human plague infection in New Mexico, USA*

MLVA genotype Rates of specific mutations between each genotype and genotype of the human isolate (A)†
Hypothesis Overall relative probability OR‡
M34:1 M25:1 M25:2
B (yard) 8.2 × 10–5 9.7 × 10–5 B→A 7.9 × 10–9
C (trail, scenario 1) 8.2 × 10–5 1.3 × 10–5 C1→A 1.0 × 10–9 7.9
C (trail, scenario 2) 8.2 × 10–5 (9.7 × 10–5)2 C2→A 7.6 × 10–13 1.0 × 104

*MLVA, multiple locus variable-number tandem repeat analysis; OR, odds ratio.
†Values generated using data and approaches described in (8).
‡The overall relative probability for each subsequent hypothesis is compared with the most likely hypothesis (B→A).

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