Emerging Infectious Disease ISSN: 1080-6059

Surveillance of Wild Birds for Avian Influenza Virus

Bethany J. Hoye

, Vincent J. Munster, Hiroshi Nishiura, Marcel Klaassen, and Ron A.M. Fouchier

Author affiliations: Author affiliations: Netherlands Institute for Ecology, Nieuwersluis, the Netherlands (B.J. Hoye, M. Klaassen); Erasmus Medical Centre, Rotterdam, the Netherlands (V.J. Munster, R.A.M. Fouchier); National Institute of Health, Hamilton, Montana, USA (V.J. Munster); University of Utrecht, Utrecht, the Netherlands (H. Nishiura); Japan Science and Technology Agency, Saitama, Japan (H. Nishiura); Deakin University, Waurn Ponds, Victoria, Australia (M. Klaassen)

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Figure 3

Probability of detecting >1 individual bird infected with avian influenza virus from a given number of samples selected at random from an extremely large population in which individual birds are infected at random at different prevalence levels. Although this nominal minimum detectable prevalence assumes binomial sampling, it can also be used for gaining a rough quantitative estimate of the minimum number of samples required before embarking on a surveillance program.

Figure 3. Probability of detecting >1 individual bird infected with avian influenza virus from a given number of samples selected at random from an extremely large population in which individual birds are infected at random at different prevalence levels. Although this nominal minimum detectable prevalence assumes binomial sampling, it can also be used for gaining a rough quantitative estimate of the minimum number of samples required before embarking on a surveillance program.

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