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Volume 16, Number 3—March 2010

Dispatch

School Closure and Mitigation of Pandemic (H1N1) 2009, Hong Kong

Joseph T. Wu, Benjamin J. CowlingComments to Author , Eric H.Y. Lau, Dennis K.M. Ip, Lai-Ming Ho, Thomas Tsang, Shuk-Kwan Chuang, Pak-Yin Leung, Su-Vui Lo, Shao-Haei Liu, and Steven Riley
Author affiliations: The University of Hong Kong School of Public Health, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, People’s Republic of China (J.T. Wu, B.J. Cowling, E.H.Y. Lau, D.K.M. Ip, L.-M. Ho, S. Riley); Centre for Health Protection, Hong Kong (T. Tsang, S.-K. Chuang); Hospital Authority, Hong Kong (P.-Y. Leung, S.-V. Lo, S.-H Liu); and Food and Health Bureau, Hong Kong (S.-V. Lo)

Main Article

Table

Summary statistics of posterior distributions obtained by using Markov Chain Monte Carlo in modeling the effects of school closures on mitigating a pandemic (H1N1) 2009 outbreak, Hong Kong, 2009*

Parameter† Posterior mean (SD) 95% CI
Mi, daily number of effective seeds in age class i, I = 1,2,3 <13 y: 0.1 (0.1) 0–0.04
13–19 y: 0.4 (0.1) 0.2–0.6
>19 y: 0.2 (0.2) 0–0.6
Basic reproductive number Before Jun 11: 1.71 (0.04) 1.63–1.78
Relative susceptibility of persons <20 y of age 2.64 (0.08) 2.48–2.78
Percentage reduction in intra-age-group transmission given by school closures 70% (3%) 64%–75%
t1, the date at which reporting rates began to decline Jun 18 (1.2 d) Jun 17–Jun 21
t2, the date at which reporting rates stopped declining Jun 29 (0.3 d) Jun 29–Jun 30
r2, the reporting rate after t2 5.2% (1.1%) 3.5%–7.7%

*CI, confidence interval.
†Model assumes a linear decline in reporting rates from 100% to r2 between times t1 and t2.

Main Article

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