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Volume 16, Number 7—July 2010

Research

Deforestation and Malaria in Mâncio Lima County, Brazil

Sarah H. OlsonComments to Author , Ronald Gangnon, Guilherme Abbad Silveira, and Jonathan A. Patz
Author affiliations: University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin, USA (S.H. Olson, R. Gangnon, J.A. Patz); Santo Antônio Energia, Porto Velho, Brazil (G. Silveira)

Main Article

Table

Influence of ecologic deforestation and social demographic risk factors on malaria incidence in health districts, Mâncio Lima County, Brazil, 1997–2006*

Variable 2006 health district summary
Univariate analysis†
Multivariate analysis†
Mean SD RR 95% CI AIC RR 95% CI
Ecologic
Deforested in 1997, % 40.2 32.5 0.84 0.64–1.09 671.1
Deforested 1997–2002, % 3.2 4.3 1.31 1.11–1.56 664.0
Deforested 1997–2001, % 2.7 4.2 1.32 1.11–1.57 663.8
Deforested 1997–2000, % 2.3 4.3 1.33 1.12–1.58 663.6 1.48 1.26–1.75
Deforested 2001–2006, %
3.4
3.6

1.03
0.85–1.23
672.7



Social demographic
Active surveillance, % 64.9 19.3 1.27 0.97–1.65 669.6
Access to care <48 h, % 70.6 13.5 1.18 0.87–1.59 671.4 0.92 0.72–1.17
Case-patients <10 y, % 27.6 9.3 1.18 0.94–1.46 669.9
Case-patients, male, % 55.9 7.8 1.07 0.88–1.31 672.1
Falciparum cases, %
41.3
10.1

1.11
0.87–1.41
671.0



Spatial
Area, km2 23.9 33 1.20 0.99–1.46 669.1 1.26 1.06–1.49
Interaction‡ 1.20 1.05–1.39

*Summary statistics of variables, relative risks (RR), and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the univariate and multivariate negative binomial generalized additive models with integrated smoothness estimation of spatial correlation. The SD is used as the unit of analysis for all risk factors and the Akaike information criterion (AIC) values for the univariate models are shown. The AIC for the multivariate model is 655.9.
†Models adjusted for spatial trend
‡Area × access to care.

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