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Volume 17, Number 9—September 2011

CME ACTIVITY

Inpatient Capacity at Children’s Hospitals during Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 Outbreak, United States

Marion R. SillsComments to Author , Matthew Hall, Evan S. Fieldston, Paul D. Hain, Harold K. Simon, Thomas V. Brogan, Daniel B. Fagbuyi, Michael B. Mundorff, and Samir S. Shah
Author affiliations: Author affiliations: University of Colorado School of Medicine, Aurora, Colorado, USA (M.R. Sills); Children's Hospital Colorado, Aurora (M.R. Sills); Child Health Corporation of America, Shawnee Mission, Kansas, USA (M. Hall); University of Pennsylvania School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA (E.S. Fieldston, S.S. Shah); Children's Hospital of Philadelphia, Philadelphia (E.S. Fieldston, S.S. Shah); Monroe Carell Jr. Children's Hospital at Vanderbilt, Nashville, Tennessee, USA (P.D. Hain); Emory University School of Medicine, Atlanta, Georgia, USA (H.K. Simon); Children's Healthcare of Atlanta, Atlanta (H.K. Simon); Seattle Children’s Hospital, Seattle, Washington, USA (T.V. Brogan); University of Washington School of Medicine, Seattle (T.V. Brogan); The George Washington University School of Medicine, Washington, DC, USA (D.B. Fagbuyi); Children's National Medical Center, Washington (D.B. Fagbuyi); Intermountain Healthcare, Salt Lake City, Utah, USA (M.B. Mundorff)

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Table 3

Predictive model of the percentage of hospital days (ICU and non-ICU) during at >100% hospital occupancy, using 11-week pandemic period fall 2009 pandemic period data as baseline occupancy, in study of 34 PHIS hospitals, United States*

ED IRI volume
ED IRI admission rate
Fall 2009 pandemic period†
2003–04 seasonal influenza period‡
Hypothetical
Admission rate, % 5.4 14.0 30
Same as during fall 2009 pandemic period, median (IQR)† A: 23.3 (0–42.9) B: 37.6 (11.6–58.4) C: 63.6 (23.4–83.1)
100% increase from pandemic period, median (IQR) D: 64.9 (16.9–81.8) E: 72.7 (24.6–81.8) F: 85.7 (40.2–98.7)

*ICU, intensive care unit; PHIS, Pediatric Health Information System; ED, emergency department; IRI, influenza-related illness; MMWR, Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA). Letters correspond to scenarios shown in the Figure.
†MMWR reporting weeks 35–45 (September 5–November 20, 2009).
‡MMWR reporting weeks 44–53 (November 1, 2003–January 9, 2004).

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