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Volume 17, Number 9—September 2011

Research

Epidemiologic Modeling with FluSurge for Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 Outbreak, Queensland, Australia

Philip R.A. BakerComments to Author , Jiandong Sun, James Morris, and Amanda Dines
Author affiliations: Author affiliations: Queensland Health, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia (P.R.A. Baker, J. Sun, A. Dines, J. Morris); Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane (P.R.A. Baker, J. Sun); University of Queensland, Brisbane (A. Dines)

Main Article

Table

Modeling attempts for pandemic (H1N1) 2009, Metro North Health Service District, Queensland, Australia, 2009*

Variable
FluSurge 2.0
Modified model
Parameter and assumption/source
Population 812,941 812,941
Gross attack rate 25% 15%
Hospitalization rate Default 0.5%
Duration of hospitalization 12 wk 14 wk
Proportion of patients needing ICU care 20% 10%
Proportion of patients needing ventilation 15% 7.5%
Average length of non-ICU hospitalization 5 d 5 d
Average length of ICU stay 10 d 10 d
Average length of ventilator usage 10 d 10 d
Available hospital resources
Private and public hospitals
Public hospitals only
Main output
Hospital admissions 2,840 (range 1,104–3,810) 610
Patients needing general beds only 549
Patients needing ICU care 61
ICU patients needing ventilator care 46
Bed demands/availability during peak week
General 9% 2%
ICU 83% 10%
Ventilator 117% 13%

*ICU, intensive care unit; –, not applicable.

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