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Volume 17, Number 9—September 2011

Research

Estimating Effect of Antiviral Drug Use during Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 Outbreak, United States

Charisma Y. Atkins, Anita Patel, Thomas H. Taylor, Matthew Biggerstaff, Toby L. Merlin, Stephanie M. Dulin, Benjamin A. Erickson, Rebekah H. Borse, Robert Hunkler, and Martin I. Meltzer
Author affiliations: Author affiliations: Author affiliations: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA (C.Y. Atkins, A. Patel, T.H. Taylor, Jr., M. Biggerstaff, T.L. Merlin, S.M. Dulin, B.A. Erikson, R.H. Borse, M.I. Meltzer); IMS Health, Fountain Hills, Arizona, USA (R. Hunkler)

Main Article

Table 6

Sensitivity analysis, altering the assumed percentage of prescriptions written for prophylaxis, nonadherence to drug regimen, and stockpiling, United States 2009–2010*

% Prescriptions written for prophylaxis % Prescriptions resulting in nonadherence + stockpiling Net no. prescriptions used to treat clinically diagnosed influenza Median no. hospitalizations averted, by patient age group, y†
0–17 18–64 >65 Total
0 0 8,177,542 3,839 10,837 3,383 18,059
10 10 6,542,034 3,071 8,669 2,707 14,447
>10 >20 5,724,279 2,687 7,586 2,368 12,641
20 20 4,906,525 2,303 6,502 2,030 10,835
20 30 4,088,771 1,920 5,418 1,692 9,030
30 30 3,271,017 1,536 4,335 1,353 7,224

*Baseline data used displays 10% for prophylaxis and 20% for personal stockpiling and non-adherence. This baseline assumption was used to generate results in Table 5.
†Results of sensitivity analysis were calculated by using the upper median estimates of antiviral effectiveness in preventing hospitalization among the clinically ill (Table 1, Table 2).

Main Article

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