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Volume 18, Number 8—August 2012

Research

Comparison of Enzootic Risk Measures for Predicting West Nile Disease, Los Angeles, California, USA, 2004–2010

Jennifer L. Kwan, Bborie K. Park, Tim E. Carpenter, Van Ngo, Rachel Civen, and William K. ReisenComments to Author 
Author affiliations: University of California, Davis, California, USA (J.L. Kwan, B.K. Park, T.E. Carpenter, W.K. Reisen); and Los Angeles County Department of Public Health, Los Angeles, California, USA (V. Ngo, R. Civen)

Main Article

Table 1

First dates for risk assessment thresholds and onset of human West Nile disease, Los Angeles, California, USA, 2004–2010*

Model Threshold Year Date
Threshold met First case
CMVRA 2.6, emergency planning 2004 Apr 30 Jun 21
2005 Jun 30 Jul 5
2006 Jul 31 Jul 10
2007 Jul 15 Jul 20
2008 Jun 15 Jun 24
2009 Jul 15 Aug 18
2010 Jun 30 Sep 14
4.1, epidemic 2004 Aug 15 Jun 21
2005 Jul 31 Jul 5
2006 Aug 31 Jul 10
2007 Sep 15 Jul 20
2008 Jul 31 Jun 24
2009 Not observed Aug 18
2010 Not observed Sep 14
Vector index >0.018, 65th percentile 2004 Apr 15 Jun 21
2005 Jun 15 Jul 5
2006 May 15 Jul 10
2007 May 15 Jul 20
2008 May 30 Jun 24
2009 Jul 15 Aug 18
2010 Jul 15 Sep 14
>0.069, 80th percentile 2004 Apr 15 Jun 21
2005 Jun 30 Jul 5
2006 Aug 15 Jul 10
2007 Jul 31 Jul 20
2008 Jul 15 Jun 24
2009 Aug 15 Aug 18
2010 Jul 31 Sep 14
DYCAST Daily 2004 May 4 Jun 21
2005 Jun 12 Jul 5
2006 Oct 4 Jul 10
2007 Aug 13 Jul 20
2008 Jun 4 Jun 24
2009 Jun 20 Aug 18
2010 Apr 5 Sep 14
Weekly, wk. no. 2004 18 26
2005 24 28
2006 40 28
2007 33 29
2008 23 26
2009 24 34
2010 19 37

*CMVRA, California Mosquito-Borne Risk Assessment; DYCAST, Dynamic Continuous-Area Space-Time system.

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