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Volume 19, Number 1—January 2013

Research

Novel Framework for Assessing Epidemiologic Effects of Influenza Epidemics and Pandemics

Carrie ReedComments to Author , Matthew Biggerstaff, Lyn Finelli, Lisa M. Koonin, Denise Beauvais, Amra Uzicanin, Andrew Plummer, Joe Bresee, Stephen C. Redd, and Daniel B. Jernigan

Author affiliation: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA

Main Article

Table 2

Scaled measures of transmissibility and clinical severity for the refined assessment of pandemic influenza effects

Parameter no. and description Scale
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Transmissibility
1. Symptomatic attack rate, community, % <10 11–15 16–20 21–24 >25
2. Symptomatic attack rate, school, % <20 21–25 26–30 31–35 >36
3. Symptomatic attack rate, workplace, % <10 11–15 16–20 21–24 >25
4. Household secondary attack rate, symptomatic, % <5 6–10 11–15 16–20 >21
5. R0: basic reproductive no. <1.1 1.2–1.3 1.4–1.5 1.6–1.7 >1.8
6. Peak % outpatient visits for influenza-like illness
1–3
4–6
7–9
10–12
>13


Clinical severity
1. Case-fatality ratio, % <0.02 0.02–0.05 0.05–0.1 0.1–0.25 0.25–0.5 0.5–1 >1
2. Case-hospitalization ratio, % <0.5 0.5–0.8 0.8–1.5 1.5–3 3–5 5–7 >7
3. Ratio, deaths: hospitalization, % <3 4–6 7–9 10–12 13–15 16–18 >18

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