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Volume 19, Number 4—April 2013

Research

Deaths Associated with Influenza Pandemic of 1918–19, Japan

Siddharth ChandraComments to Author 
Author affiliation: Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan, USA

Main Article

Table 1

Population growth models and population loss estimates for Japan, 1903–1930 data*

Estimate
Model
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Includes Kanto earthquake prefectures† Yes Yes Yes Yes No No No No
Includes Hokkaido outlier Yes Yes No No Yes Yes No No
Includes 1918 population count data Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No
Intercept, γ00 13.6120‡ 13.5957‡ 13.6197‡ 13.6040‡ 13.5799‡ 13.5623‡ 13.5876‡ 13.5706‡
0.0524 0.0530 0.0530 0.0535 0.0534 0.0537 0.0541 0.0543
Time trend, γ10 0.0103‡ 0.011‡ 0.0095‡ 0.0105‡ 0.0098‡ 0.0110‡ 0.0089‡ 0.0100‡
0.0012 0.0012 0.0009 0.0008 0.0012 0.0012 0.0009 0.0008
Flu dummy, γ20 –0.0344‡ –0.0477‡ –0.0364‡ –0.0492‡ –0.0374‡ –0.0518‡ –0.0397‡ –0.0536‡
0.0055 0.0070 0.0052 0.0069 0.0055 0.0067 0.0051 0.0067
Flu dummy × time trend, γ30 0.0006 –0.0004 0.0013§ 0.0003 0.0002 –0.0010 0.0009 –0.0002
0.0009 0.0010 0.0006 0.0007 0.0009 0.0010 0.0006 0.0006
No. observations 329 282 322 276 301 258 294 252
Hausman test statistic <0.0001 <0.0001 <0.0001 <0.0001 <0.0001 <0.0001 <0.0001 <0.0001
p>0.9999 p>0.9999 p>0.9999 p>0.9999 p>0.9999 p>0.9999 p>0.9999 p>0.9999
Breusch-Pagan test statistic 924.89 653.01 921.41 652.71 848.22 599.17 847.85 601.55
p<0.0001 p<0.0001 p<0.0001 p<0.0001 p<0.0001 p<0.0001 p<0.0001 p<0.0001
Population change from influenza, millions –1.38 –1.97 –1.50 –2.02 –1.48 –2.12 –1.61 –2.17
Population change from influenza, % –2.53 –3.62 –2.87 –3.87 –3.15 –4.51 –3.59 –4.85
Population change, 1918–19, millions –0.66 –1.21 –0.89 –1.38 –0.90 –1.49 –1.13 –1.65
Population change, 1918–19, % –1.20 –2.19 –1.69 –2.60 –1.89 –3.13 –2.51 –3.65
Annual population growth rate to pandemic, % 1.03 1.13 0.95 1.05 0.98 1.10 0.89 1.00
Annual population growth rate after pandemic, % 1.09 1.09 1.08 1.08 1.00 1.00 0.98 0.98

*Italics indicate SE of the coefficient.
†Chiba, Kanagawa, Shizuoka, Tokyo.
‡p<0.01.
§p<0.05.

Main Article

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