TY - JOUR AU - Cuong, Hoang Quoc AU - Vu, Nguyen Thanh AU - Cazelles, Bernard AU - Boni, Maciej AU - Thai, Khoa T.D. AU - Rabaa, Maia AU - Quang, Luong Chan AU - Simmons, Cameron AU - Huu, Tran Ngoc AU - Anders, Katherine T1 - Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Dengue Epidemics, Southern Vietnam T2 - Emerging Infectious Disease journal PY - 2013 VL - 19 IS - 6 SP - 945 SN - 1080-6059 AB - An improved understanding of heterogeneities in dengue virus transmission might provide insights into biological and ecologic drivers and facilitate predictions of the magnitude, timing, and location of future dengue epidemics. To investigate dengue dynamics in urban Ho Chi Minh City and neighboring rural provinces in Vietnam, we analyzed a 10-year monthly time series of dengue surveillance data from southern Vietnam. The per capita incidence of dengue was lower in Ho Chi Minh City than in most rural provinces; annual epidemics occurred 1–3 months later in Ho Chi Minh City than elsewhere. The timing and the magnitude of annual epidemics were significantly more correlated in nearby districts than in remote districts, suggesting that local biological and ecologic drivers operate at a scale of 50–100 km. Dengue incidence during the dry season accounted for 63% of variability in epidemic magnitude. These findings can aid the targeting of vector-control interventions and the planning for dengue vaccine implementation. KW - Dengue KW - epidemiology KW - surveillance KW - transmission KW - heterogeneity KW - spatial distribution KW - Vietnam KW - arthropod vectors KW - viruses KW - vector-borne infections DO - 10.3201/eid1906.121323 UR - https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/19/6/12-1323_article ER - End of Reference