TY - JOUR AU - Métras, Raphaëlle AU - Baguelin, Marc AU - Edmunds, W. John AU - Thompson, Peter AU - Kemp, Alan AU - Pfeiffer, Dirk AU - Collins, Lisa AU - White, Richard T1 - Transmission Potential of Rift Valley Fever Virus over the Course of the 2010 Epidemic in South Africa T2 - Emerging Infectious Disease journal PY - 2013 VL - 19 IS - 6 SP - 916 SN - 1080-6059 AB - A Rift Valley fever (RVF) epidemic affecting animals on domestic livestock farms was reported in South Africa during January–August 2010. The first cases occurred after heavy rainfall, and the virus subsequently spread countrywide. To determine the possible effect of environmental conditions and vaccination on RVF virus transmissibility, we estimated the effective reproduction number (Re) for the virus over the course of the epidemic by extending the Wallinga and Teunis algorithm with spatial information. Re reached its highest value in mid-February and fell below unity around mid-March, when vaccination coverage was 7.5%–45.7% and vector-suitable environmental conditions were maintained. The epidemic fade-out likely resulted first from the immunization of animals following natural infection or vaccination. The decline in vector-suitable environmental conditions from April onwards and further vaccination helped maintain Re below unity. Increased availability of vaccine use data would enable evaluation of the effect of RVF vaccination campaigns. KW - Rift Valley fever KW - Rift Valley fever virus KW - RFV KW - South Africa KW - epidemic KW - likelihood functions KW - viruses KW - transmission KW - zoonoses DO - 10.3201/eid1906.121641 UR - https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/19/6/12-1641_article ER - End of Reference