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Volume 2, Number 4—October 1996

Dispatch

Assessing the Costs and Benefits of an Oral Vaccine for Raccoon Rabies: A Possible Model

Martin I. Meltzer
Author affiliation: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA

Main Article

Table 2

Net present values (NPV) of different distribution scenarios for using an oral vaccine to control raccoon rabies

Baiting scenario NPV without pet vaccination ($ millions)
NPV with pet vaccinationsa 
($ millions)
Discount rate
Discount rate
0% 3% 5% 0% 3% 5%
Expanding circlesb -10.2 -6.2 -4.7 +5.5 +3.1 +2.2
Entire area at onceb -21.3 -15.7 -13.3 -0.5 -1.1 -1.3
 
Sensitivity analyses
Reduced distribution:savingsc
Expanding circles -14.3 -8.5 -6.3 +1.4 +0.9 +0.6
Entire area done at once -30.8 -21.9 -18.2 -12.5 -8.9 -7.3
No baiting of boundary
Expanding circles -0.7 -1.8 -2.1 +14.1 +7.9 +4.5
Entire area at once +2.9 -0.9 -2.3 +23.7 +13.7 +9.7

a) Cost savings (benefits) of 11 pets/sq. mi during an epizootic period, and 2.75 pets/sq. mi during the post-epizootic period, both at $16/pet.
b) Expanding circles assumes start with 20-mi radius, expanding by 5 mi every 2 years for 20 years, and then baiting a 5-mi wide boundary for next 10 years. Entire area assumes baiting 65-mi radius for 2 years, followed by 28 years of baiting 5-mi wide radius.
c) Ratio of distribution costs:cost savings is 1:1.03,based on New Jersey data (1). In baseline scenario, ratio is 1:1.57.

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