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Volume 5, Number 5—October 1999

Research

The Economic Impact of Pandemic Influenza in the United States: Priorities for Intervention

Martin I. MeltzerComments to Author , Nancy J. Cox, and Keiji Fukuda
Author affiliations: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA

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Table 2

Variables used to define distribution of disease outcomes of those with clinical casesa of influenza

Rates per 1,000 personsb
Variable Lower Most likely Upper
Outpatient visits
Not at high risk
0-19 yrs old 165 230
20-64 yrs old 40 85
65 + yrs old 45 74
High risk
0-19 yrs old 289 403
20-64 yrs old 70 149
65 + yrs old 79 130
Hospitalizations
Not at high risk
0-19 yrs old 0.2 0.5 2.9
20-64 yrs old 0.18 2.75
65 + yrs old 1.5 3.0
High risk
0-19 yrs old 2.1 2.9 9.0
20-64 yrs old 0.83 5.14
65 + yrs old 4.0 13
Deaths
Not at high risk
0-19 yrs old 0.014 0.024 0.125
20-64 yrs old 0.025 0.037 0.09
65 + yrs old 0.28 0.42 0.54
High risk
0-19 yrs old 0.126 0.22 7.65
20-64 yrs old
0.1

5.72
65 + yrs old 2.76 5.63

aClinical cases are defined as cases in persons with illness sufficient to cause an economic impact. The number of persons who will be ill but will not seek medical care, are calculated as follows: Number illage = (Populationage x gross attack rate) - (deathsage + hospitalizationsage + outpatientsage). The number of deaths, hospitalizations, and outpatients are calculated by using the rates presented in this table.
bFor Monte Carlo simulations, rates are presented as lower and upper for uniform distributions, and lower, most likely, and upper for triangular distributions (18).
Sources: 3,6,11,19-29, and Appendix 2.

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