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Volume 5, Number 5—October 1999

Research

The Economic Impact of Pandemic Influenza in the United States: Priorities for Intervention

Martin I. MeltzerComments to Author , Nancy J. Cox, and Keiji Fukuda
Author affiliations: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA

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Table 6

Costs (direct and indirect) of influenza pandemic per gross attack rate:a deaths, hospitalizations, outpatients, illnesses, and total costs (in 1995 US$)

Cost per gross attack rate ($ millions)
15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
Deaths
Mean 59,288 79,051 98,814 118,577 138,340
5th percentile 23,800 31,733 39,666 47,599 55,532
95th percentile 94,907 126,543 158,179 189,815 221,451
Hospitalizations
Mean 1,928 2,571 3,214 3,856 4,499
5th percentile 1,250 1,667 2,084 2,501 2,917
95th percentile 2,683 3,579 4,472 5,367 6,261
Outpatients
Mean 5,708 7,611 9,513 11,416 13,318
5th percentile 4,871 6,495 8,119 9,742 11,366
95th percentile 6,557 8,742 10,928 13,113 15,299
Ill, no medical care soughtb
Mean 4,422 5,896 7,370 8,844 10,317
5th percentile 3,270 4,360 5,450 6,540 7,629
95th percentile 5,557 7,409 9,262 11,114 12,967
Grand totals
Mean 71,346 95,128 118,910 142,692 166,474
5th percentile 35,405 47,206 59,008 70,810 82,611
95th percentile 106,988 142,650 178,313 213,975 249,638

aGross attack rate = percentage of clinical influenza illness per population.
bPersons who become clinically ill due to influenza but do not seek medical care; illness has an economic impact (e.g., half day off work).

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