Volume 5, Number 5—October 1999
Research
The Economic Impact of Pandemic Influenza in the United States: Priorities for Intervention
Martin I. Meltzer
, Nancy J. Cox, and Keiji Fukuda
, Nancy J. Cox, and Keiji FukudaTable 7
The mean annual insurance premiuma for planning, preparing, and practicing to respond to the next influenza pandemic
| Mean (s.d.) insurance premium ($ millions) |
||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low vaccine effectivenessb
x 40% compliance
Probability of pandemic |
High vaccine effectivenessb
x 60% compliance
Probability of pandemic |
|||||||
| Gross attack rate | Cost of vaccination per vaccinee ($) | |||||||
| 1 in 30 years | 1 in 60 years | 1 in 100 years | 1 in 30 years | 1 in 60 years | 1 in 100 years | |||
| 15% | 21 | 306 (122) | 153 (61) | 92 (37) | 872 (341) | 435 (170) | 262 (103) | |
| 62 | 162 (122) | 81 (61) | 48 (37) | 654 (341) | 326 (170) | 196 (103) | ||
| 25% | 21 | 561 (204) | 280 (102) | 168 (61) | 1,528 (569) | 762 (284) | 459 (171) | |
| 62 | 416 (204) | 207 (102) | 125 (61) | 1,311 (569) | 653 (284) | 394 (171) | ||
| 35% | 21 | 815 (286) | 406 (142) | 245 (86) | 2,184 (796) | 1,089 (397) | 656 (239) | |
| 62 | 670 (286) | 334 (142) | 201 (86) | 1,967 (796) | 980 (397) | 591 (239) | ||
aDefined here as the amount of money to be spent each year to plan, prepare, and practice to ensure that such mass vaccinations can take place if needed. See text for description of calculating premiums. The mathematically optimal allocation of such funds for each activity requires a separate set of calculations.
bLow and high levels of vaccine effectiveness are defined in the Appendix.
