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Volume 5, Number 5—October 1999

Research

The Economic Impact of Pandemic Influenza in the United States: Priorities for Intervention

Martin I. MeltzerComments to Author , Nancy J. Cox, and Keiji Fukuda
Author affiliations: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA

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Table 7

The mean annual insurance premiuma for planning, preparing, and practicing to respond to the next influenza pandemic

Mean (s.d.) insurance premium ($ millions)
Low vaccine effectivenessb
x 40% compliance
Probability of pandemic

High vaccine effectivenessb
x 60% compliance
Probability of pandemic
Gross attack rate Cost of vaccination
per vaccinee ($)
1 in
30 years 1 in
60 years 1 in
100 years 1 in
30 years 1 in
60 years 1 in
100 years
15% 21 306 (122) 153 (61) 92 (37) 872 (341) 435 (170) 262 (103)
62 162 (122) 81 (61) 48 (37) 654 (341) 326 (170) 196 (103)
25% 21 561 (204) 280 (102) 168 (61) 1,528 (569) 762 (284) 459 (171)
62 416 (204) 207 (102) 125 (61) 1,311 (569) 653 (284) 394 (171)
35% 21 815 (286) 406 (142) 245 (86) 2,184 (796) 1,089 (397) 656 (239)
62 670 (286) 334 (142) 201 (86) 1,967 (796) 980 (397) 591 (239)

aDefined here as the amount of money to be spent each year to plan, prepare, and practice to ensure that such mass vaccinations can take place if needed. See text for description of calculating premiums. The mathematically optimal allocation of such funds for each activity requires a separate set of calculations.
bLow and high levels of vaccine effectiveness are defined in the Appendix.

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