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Volume 6, Number 2—April 2000

Research

Multivariate Markovian Modeling of Tuberculosis: Forecast for the United States

Sara M. Debanne*Comments to Author , Roger A. Bielefeld*, George M. Cauthen†, Thomas M. Daniel*, and Douglas Y. Rowland
Author affiliations: *Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, Ohio, USA; †Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA; and ‡D.Y. Rowland Associates, Cleveland, Ohio, USA

Main Article

Table 3

Actual and projected tuberculosis rates per 100,000 for selected population groups, 1980 to 2010

Year
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010

Actual
Proj.
Actual
Proj.
Actual
Proj.
Actual
Proj.
Proj.
Proj.
All (12.5) 10.6 (9.5) 11.3 (10.4) 9.7 (8.7) 8.3 6.6 4.6
By race/ethnicity
White, not Hispanic (6.6) 5.1 (4.7) 4.8 (4.2 ) 3.8 (3.1) 3.2 2.6 2.1
Black, not Hispanic (34.3) 30.5 (28.0) 34.7 (33.0) 27.9 (23.9) 23.1 16.9 9.3
Hispanic (25.6) 24.1 (18.2) 26.5 (22.1) 33.2 (18.0) 28.5 23.2 16.7
American Indian (32.7) 31.5 (24.5) 26.3 (19.5) 19.2 (16.5) 16.6 11.4 7.0
Asian/Pacific Islander (86.4) 39.9 (50.9) 34.9 (42.8) 27.1 (45.9) 20.1 13.1 6.2
By age
Under 5 (1.1) 3.6 (4.4) 4.3 (5.1) 4.1 (4.7) 3.5 3.2 2.4
5-14 (0.8) 2.5 (1.4) 2.4 (1.9) 2.2 (1.7) 1.9 1.7 1.3
15-24 (2.8) 6.0 (4.3) 8.1 (5.2) 6.9 (4.7) 5.8 4.3 3.0
25-44 (8.4) 10.6 (9.4) 12.5 (12.0) 10.7 (9.9) 9.3 7.3 4.4
45-64 (19.6) 14.0 (14.0) 15.3 (13.7) 13.6 (11.5) 11.7 8.9 5.9
65+ (49.9) 27.1 (24.8) 20.1 (20.3) 16.1 (16.0) 13.4 11.1 8.5
Selected Metropolitan Areas
New York City (18.6) 24.9 (24.7) 41.7 (43.9) 35.2 (30.1) 30.3 25.3 17.9
San Francisco (19.8) 13.8 (16.7) 17.9 (21.9) 18.3 (23.0) 17.4 13.2 5.1
Los Angeles (24.8) 26.7 (19.2) 30.5 (23.6) 31.5 (19.1) 27.7 22.1 15.6
Miami (28.0) 17.5 (23.7) 21.1 (23.6) 13.3 (19.1) 9.9 8.8 5.7

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