TY - JOUR AU - Debanne, Sara M. AU - Bielefeld, Roger A. AU - Cauthen, George M. AU - Daniel, Thomas M. AU - Rowland, Douglas Y. T1 - Multivariate Markovian Modeling of Tuberculosis: Forecast for the United States T2 - Emerging Infectious Disease journal PY - 2000 VL - 6 IS - 2 SP - 148 SN - 1080-6059 AB - We have developed a computer-implemented, multivariate Markov chain model to project tuberculosis (TB) incidence in the United States from 1980 to 2010 in disaggregated demographic groups. Uncertainty in model parameters and in the projections is represented by fuzzy numbers. Projections are made under the assumption that current TB control measures will remain unchanged for the projection period. The projections of the model demonstrate an intermediate increase in national TB incidence (similar to that which actually occurred) followed by continuing decline. The rate of decline depends strongly on geographic, racial, and ethnic characteristics. The model predicts that the rate of decline in the number of cases among Hispanics will be slower than among white non-Hispanics and black non-Hispanics--a prediction supported by the most recent data. KW - Tuberculosis KW - Multivariate Markovian modeling KW - KW - United States DO - 10.3201/eid0602.000207 UR - https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/6/2/00-0207_article ER - End of Reference