Volume 8, Number 12—December 2002
Meteorologic Influences on Plasmodium falciparum Malaria in the Highland Tea Estates of Kericho, Western Kenya
|Variable||p||ADFc||β||t||p valuec||τα||Q||Sig. Q|
|Tmean met. stat. (oC)||8||-3.41||0.0004||1.76||0.0799||-0.0211||40.8630||0.2653|
|Rain met. stat. (mm)||1||-11.91||-0.0202||-0.52||0.6066||-0.0074||43.3753||0.1858|
|Tmean clim. (oC)||1||-7.51||0.0035||1.60||0.1103||-0.0980||46.6888||0.1094|
|Tmax clim. (oC)||24||-4.66||0.0070||1.68||0.0935||0.0592||22.6634||0.9592|
|Tmin clim. (oC)||1||-8.36||0.0038||1.55||0.1233||-0.1944||45.1424||0.1412|
|Precipitation clim. (mm)||1||-11.70||-0.0098||-0.36||0.7205||-0.0745||34.2984||0.5497|
|Vapor pressure clim. (hPa)||1||-8.37||0.0038||1.66||0.0974||-0.1829||45.5674||0.1318|
|Garnham suitability (mo)d||4||-4.21||-0.0380||-0.89||0.3850||-0.4488||5.6658||0.7729|
aTmean, the mean monthly temperature; Tmax, the mean of maximum monthly temperatures; Tmin, the mean of minimum monthly temperatures; met. stat., meteorologic station data from the Kericho tea estate; clim., data derived from the global gridded climatology dataset (33,34).
bFigures in bold denote significance at the 5% level. p is the number of lagged differenced dependent variables selected.
cADF, the Augmented Dicke-Fuller t-test for γ=0. The 5% critical value is -3.45. Exact p values are not available for ADF and τα statistics. The distribution of the t statistic for the slope parameter β has the standard t distribution under the assumption that γ<0. τα is the t statistic for the intercept term in the autoregression without a linear time trend. This test is the appropriate one for a trend if γ=0. Its 5% critical value is 2.54. The Q statistic is a portmanteau test for general serial correlation and is distributed as chi square (39).
dGarnham suitability (1,4) refers to the number of months with a mean monthly temperature exceeding 15°C and monthly rainfall totals exceeding 152 mm (when the gridded climatology data are used). These data are therefore annual data, whereas all other time-series are monthly observations.
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