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Volume 9, Number 10—October 2003

Research

Environmental Risk and Meningitis Epidemics in Africa

Anna M. Molesworth*, Luis E. Cuevas*, Stephen J. Connor*, Andrew P. Morse†, and Madeleine C. Thomson*Comments to Author 
Author affiliations: *Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Liverpool, United Kingdom; †University of Liverpool, Liverpool, United Kingdom

Main Article

Table 2

Baseline characteristics, estimated coefficients, and standard errors for the model

Variable Epidemic experience
(n districts)a
Multi-variable analysis
Ever (%) Never β SE
Absolute humidity profileb




Class 1
15 (3)
527
Reference
Class 2
9 (6)
153
0.59
0.44
Class 3
19 (8)
228
1.00c
0.36
Class 4
43 (47)
48
3.48c
0.35
Class 5
143 (61)
93
3.97c
0.31
Class 6
0 (0)
2
–2.44
15.73
Class 7
118 (47)
132
3.29c
0.30
Class 8
40 (28)
102
2.40c
0.33
Class 9
106 (48)
117
3.31c
0.31
Class 10
46 (22)
161
2.12c
0.32
Class 11
16 (29)
39
3.34c
0.43
Class 12
1 (11)
8
2.17d
1.13
Class 13
90 (48)
97
3.30c
0.32
Class 14
44 (52)
40
4.00c
0.36
Class 15
178 (74)
64
4.46c
0.32
Class 16
7 (37)
12
3.61c
0.59
Class 17
25 (54)
21
3.99c
0.43
Class 18
181 (80)
46
4.82c
0.32
Class 19
105 (56)
84
3.60c
0.31
Class 20
46 (39)
73
3.45c
0.35
Land-cover type




Savanna
646 (39)
1006
Reference
Dry land crop land/pasture
44 (39)
68
–0.38
0.23
Irrigated crop land/pasture
0 (0)
9
–7.02
7.14
Cropland/grassland mosaic
198 (53)
174
–0.07
0.14
Cropland/woodland mosaic
4 (4)
105
–1.97c
0.56
Grassland
123 (67)
61
0.36
0.19
Shrub land
66 (34)
127
–0.52c
0.19
Urban
3 (43)
4
0.32
0.85
Broadleaf deciduous forest
44 (39)
68
0.17
0.23
Evergreen broadleaf forest
37 (13)
248
0.07
0.24
Water bodies
20 (38)
33
–0.07
0.33
Forest wetland
0 (0)
24
–2.82
4.55
Barren/sparsely vegetated
46 (28)
120
–1.07c
0.24
Variable removede
Log likelihood
Change in –2 likelihood
df
Significance of change
Absolute humidity profile
–2045.937
877.963
19
<0.001
Land-cover type –1642.564 71.217 12 <0.001

aExcludes five districts for which environmental data were unavailable (in Sinai, Egypt, and Pemba, Tanzania).
bp value <0.01.
cp value <0.05.
dSee Figure 1 for description of profile classes.
eModel if term removed.

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