Applying Network Theory to Epidemics: Control Measures for Mycoplasma pneumoniae Outbreaks
Lauren Ancel Meyers*† , M.E.J. Newman*‡, Michael Martin§, and Stephanie Schrag§
Author affiliations: *Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA; †University of Texas at Austin, Austin, Texas, USA; ‡University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; §Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
Figure 5. . Size of epidemic. Predicted and actual number of caregivers and wards affected in an outbreak. These predictions assume that the transmission rate from caregivers to wards is τc = 0.6 and from wards to caregivers is τw= 0.06.
1We calculate these rates by averaging the fraction of infected patients per ward across the 15 wards and compute the error by taking the standard deviation of these fractions, divided by the square root of the sample size.
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