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Volume 9, Number 5—May 2003

Research

Pandemic Influenza and Healthcare Demand in the Netherlands: Scenario Analysis

Marianne L.L. van Genugten*Comments to Author , Marie-Louise A. Heijnen*, and Johannes C. Jager*
Author affiliations: *National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, the Netherlands

Main Article

Table 2

Input variables used to calculate potential impact of influenza pandemic in terms of healthcare outcomes and the effect of various interventions, the Netherlands

Input variable Age groups (y) Sources
<19 20–64 >65
Population 3.8×106 9.7×106 2.1×106 Statistics Netherlands
Population at high risk 0.09×106 0.6×106 0.7×106 (3840)
Age distribution of influenza cases 34.3 60.4 5.2 As in a regular epidemic in general practice (41)a
Current vaccination degree (42,43)
Population at low risk 0.02 0.05 0.20
Population at high risk 0.65 0.75 0.80
Efficacy influenza vaccine 80% 80% 80% (1315)
Invasive pneumococcal infections (12,16,17)
Related hospitalizations 50% 50% 50%
Efficacy vaccine 64% 64% 64%
Hospitalization rate (per 100,000) for influenza As in a regular epidemic (44)a
Population at low risk 0.1 0.1 2
Population at high risk 28 28 10
Hospitalization rate (per 100,000) for influenza-related pneumonia As in a regular epidemic (44)a
Population at low risk 0.3 0.3 38
Population at high risk 72 72 175
Death rate (per 100,000) As in a regular epidemic (45)a
Low risk population 0.6 0.6 26.2
High risk population 29.6 29.6 84.9

aAssuming that during a regular epidemic 10% of the population becomes ill.

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