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Volume 9, Number 5—May 2003

Research

Pandemic Influenza and Healthcare Demand in the Netherlands: Scenario Analysis

Marianne L.L. van Genugten*Comments to Author , Marie-Louise A. Heijnen*, and Johannes C. Jager*
Author affiliations: *National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, the Netherlands

Main Article

Table 5

Hospitalizations and deaths in various scenarios for alternative age-specific attack ratesa

Scenario No. of hospitalizations per age group
No. of deaths per age group
Regular epidemic Groups equally affected Age group proportion


Age group proportion
1:1:2 1:2:1 2:1:1 Previous pandemicsb Regular epidemic Groups equally affected 1:1:2 1:2:1 2:1:1 Previous pandemicsb
Nonintervention
10,186
12,478
19,630
9,184
10,252
7,541
4.040
5,199
9,009
3,288
4,197
2,746
Influenza vaccination












Total population
3,847
4,844
8,068
3,285
3,939
2,716
1,738
2,245
3,929
1,401
1,809
1,169
Risk groups
3,968
4,962
8,171
3,410
4,058
2,840
1,789
2,294
3,972
1,454
1,860
1,222
Pneumococcal vaccination
7,008
8,574
13,460
6,323
7,053
5,200
3,903
5,015
8,697
3,178
4,054
2,654
Neuraminidase inhibitors 5,093 6,239 9,815 4,592 5,126 3,771 2,020 2,600 4,505 1,644 2,099 1,373

aGross attack rate 30%.
bDistribution from Meltzer et al. (9) based on previous pandemics.

Main Article

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