TY - JOUR AU - Haber, Michael AU - Shay, Davis AU - Davis, Xiaohong AU - Patel, Rajan AU - Jin, Xiaoping AU - Weintraub, Eric AU - Orenstein, Evan AU - Thompson, William T1 - Effectiveness of Interventions to Reduce Contact Rates during a Simulated Influenza Pandemic T2 - Emerging Infectious Disease journal PY - 2007 VL - 13 IS - 4 SP - 581 SN - 1080-6059 AB - Measures to decrease contact between persons during an influenza pandemic have been included in pandemic response plans. We used stochastic simulation models to explore the effects of school closings, voluntary confinements of ill persons and their household contacts, and reductions in contacts among long-term care facility (LTCF) residents on pandemic-related illness and deaths. Our findings suggest that school closings would not have a substantial effect on pandemic-related outcomes in the absence of measures to reduce out-of-school contacts. However, if persons with influenzalike symptoms and their household contacts were encouraged to stay home, then rates of illness and death might be reduced by ≈50%. By preventing ill LTCF residents from making contact with other residents, illness and deaths in this vulnerable population might be reduced by ≈60%. Restricting the activities of infected persons early in a pandemic could decrease negative health impact. KW - influenza KW - models KW - statistical KW - patient isolation KW - quarantine KW - stochastic processes KW - research KW - United States DO - 10.3201/eid1304.060828 UR - https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/13/4/06-0828_article ER - End of Reference