TY - JOUR AU - Jackson, Michael AU - Rose, Charles AU - Cohn, Amanda AU - Coronado, Fatima AU - Clark, Thomas AU - Wenger, Jay AU - Bulkow, Lisa AU - Bruce, Michael AU - Messonnier, Nancy AU - Hennessy, Thomas T1 - Modeling Insights into Haemophilus influenzae Type b Disease, Transmission, and Vaccine Programs T2 - Emerging Infectious Disease journal PY - 2012 VL - 18 IS - 1 SP - 13 SN - 1080-6059 AB - In response to the 2007–2009 Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) vaccine shortage in the United States, we developed a flexible model of Hib transmission and disease for optimizing Hib vaccine programs in diverse populations and situations. The model classifies population members by age, colonization/disease status, and antibody levels, with movement across categories defined by differential equations. We implemented the model for the United States as a whole, England and Wales, and the Alaska Native population. This model accurately simulated Hib incidence in all 3 populations, including the increased incidence in England/Wales beginning in 1999 and the change in Hib incidence in Alaska Natives after switching Hib vaccines in 1996. The model suggests that a vaccine shortage requiring deferral of the booster dose could last 3 years in the United States before loss of herd immunity would result in increasing rates of invasive Hib disease in children <5 years of age. KW - Haemophilus influenzae type b KW - Hib KW - vaccines KW - vaccination KW - immunization programs KW - mathematical model KW - bacteria KW - disease transmission KW - United States KW - England KW - Wales KW - Alaska KW - susceptible populations KW - herd immunity DO - 10.3201/eid1801.110336 UR - https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/18/1/11-0336_article ER - End of Reference