Emerging Infectious Disease ISSN: 1080-6059

Model Parameters and Outbreak Control for SARS

Gerardo Chowell*†

, Carlos Castillo-Chavez‡¹, Paul W. Fenimore*, Christopher M. Kribs-Zaleta§, Leon Arriola*, and James M. Hyman*

Author affiliations: *Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico, USA; †Cornell University, Ithaca, New York, USA; ‡Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona, USA; §University of Texas at Arlington, Arlington, Texas, USA

Main Article

Figure 2

Empiric (dots) and stretched exponential estimated probability density function Prob(R0) = a exp[–(R0/b)c] (solid line) (16) of R0 for the cases of Toronto (a = 0.186, b = 0.803, c = 0.957, after control measures had been implemented), Hong Kong (a = 0.281, b = 1.312, c = 0.858), and Singapore (a = 0.213, b = 1.466, c = 0.883) obtained from our uncertainty analysis. The distribution for the case of perfect isolation (l = 0, a = 0.369, b = 0.473, c = 0.756) is shown as a reference.

Figure 2. . Empiric (dots) and stretched exponential estimated probability density function Prob(R₀) = a exp[–(R₀/b)^c] (solid line) (16) of R₀ for the cases of Toronto (a = 0.186, b = 0.803, c = 0.957, after control measures had been implemented), Hong Kong (a = 0.281, b = 1.312, c = 0.858), and Singapore (a = 0.213, b = 1.466, c = 0.883) obtained from our uncertainty analysis. The distribution for the case of perfect isolation (l = 0, a = 0.369, b = 0.473, c = 0.756) is shown as a reference.

Main Article

¹At the time this work was carried out, Dr. Castillo-Chavez was on sabbatical at Los Alamos National Laboratory and faculty of Cornell University.

²Recall that l = 0 corresponds to complete isolation, whereas l = 1 means no effective isolation occurs. Hence, a decrease in l means an increase in the effective isolation of the infected persons.

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