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Volume 10, Number 8—August 2004

Letter

Detecting Bioterror Attack

Dominique Bicout*Comments to Author 
Author affiliation: *Ecole National Veterinaire Lyon, Marcy-l'Etoile, France

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Figure

Probability of attack detection delay for a contagious agent. Dashed line represents the early approximation [[INLINEGRAPHIC('03-1044-M12')]], solid lines the full solution (where the quoted numbers represent the fraction p of the population initially infected), and the symbol “nc” stands for noncontagious agent ([[INLINEGRAPHIC('03-1044-M13')]]). The parameters are as follows: blood donation rate k = 0.05 per person per year, screening mean window period ω = 3 days, mean duration of infectiousn

Figure. Probability of attack detection delay for a contagious agent. Dashed line represents the early approximation formula image, solid lines the full solution (where the quoted numbers represent the fraction p of the population initially infected), and the symbol “nc” stands for noncontagious agent (formula image). The parameters are as follows: blood donation rate k = 0.05 per person per year, screening mean window period ω = 3 days, mean duration of infectiousness 1/r = 14 days, basic reproductive number formula image, and the initial attack size Np = 500. Note that the exposed populations are therefore 5,000 and 625 for p = 0.1 and formula image, respectively.

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