Volume 11, Number 8—August 2005
Dispatch
Cost-Benefit of Stockpiling Drugs for Influenza Pandemic
Ran D. Balicer*†
, Michael Huerta*, Nadav Davidovitch*†, and Itamar Grotto*†
, Michael Huerta*, Nadav Davidovitch*†, and Itamar Grotto*†Table 1
Point estimate and range of values for selected model variables*
| Variable | Point estimate | Range |
|---|---|---|
| Overall attack rate, %† | 25 | 15–35 |
| Probability of pandemic (per year) | 3 | 1–10 |
| Adult workdays lost, by age, y | ||
| <1–≤18 | 3.7 | 2–5 |
| 19–64 | 4.9 | 3–7 |
| ≥65 | 0.5 | 0.25–2 |
| Average hospital stay (days) by age, y | ||
| <1–≤18 | 4.0 | 2–5 |
| 19–64 | 5.8 | 2–7 |
| ≥65 | 7.0 | 4-9 |
| Patients seeking medical care within 48 h, % | 80 | 70–90 |
| Efficacy of antiviral prophylaxis, % | ||
| Preexposure prophylaxis (50 days) | 71 | 57–85 |
| Postexposure prophylaxis (7 days) | 36 | 25–47 |
| Efficacy of antiviral therapy, % | ||
| Reduction in hospitalizations | 59 | 30–70 |
| Reduction in antimicrobial drug use |
63 |
40–80 |
| Reduction in lost workdays under treatment | 1 | 0.5–1.5 |
*Complete list and references available in online Appendix.
†Population attack rate was calculated by stratifying the population by age and risk and applying age- and risk-specific attack rates and ranges (Appendix).
