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Volume 11, Number 8—August 2005

Dispatch

Cost-Benefit of Stockpiling Drugs for Influenza Pandemic

Ran D. Balicer*†Comments to Author , Michael Huerta*, Nadav Davidovitch*†, and Itamar Grotto*†
Author affiliations: *Ministry of Health, Jerusalem, Israel; †Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Be'er-Sheva, Israel

Main Article

Table 1

Point estimate and range of values for selected model variables*

Variable Point estimate Range
Overall attack rate, %† 25 15–35
Probability of pandemic (per year) 3 1–10
Adult workdays lost, by age, y
<1–≤18 3.7 2–5
19–64 4.9 3–7
≥65 0.5 0.25–2
Average hospital stay (days) by age, y
<1–≤18 4.0 2–5
19–64 5.8 2–7
≥65 7.0 4-9
Patients seeking medical care within 48 h, % 80 70–90
Efficacy of antiviral prophylaxis, %
Preexposure prophylaxis (50 days) 71 57–85
Postexposure prophylaxis (7 days) 36 25–47
Efficacy of antiviral therapy, %
Reduction in hospitalizations 59 30–70
Reduction in antimicrobial drug use
63
40–80
Reduction in lost workdays under treatment 1 0.5–1.5

*Complete list and references available in online Appendix.
†Population attack rate was calculated by stratifying the population by age and risk and applying age- and risk-specific attack rates and ranges (Appendix).

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